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Industrial Policy Fuels Trade Imbalances, Study Warns

Industrial policies, global imbalances, and technological hegemony

Home | CEPR2026.03.27Updated 9d ago
Industrial policies, global imbalances, and technological hegemony

Industrial policies are a key feature of many countries running persistent trade surpluses. This column develops a framework to examine how industrial policies shape global imbalances and asks whether countries should worry about trade deficits, in the context of the ‘Second China Shock’ affecting mostly innovation-intensive high-tech sectors. The findings suggest that countries negatively affected by global imbalances should include industrial and innovation policies as part of their policy toolkit.

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A new framework reveals how industrial policies in surplus nations create global trade imbalances, particularly affecting high-tech sectors. Researchers argue that countries experiencing the "Second China Shock" should adopt their own industrial and innovation policies to compete. The analysis suggests trade deficits warrant serious policy responses beyond traditional approaches.

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